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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Mayra Bueno Silva won · SUB

Elo1453

Elo1389

Mayra Bueno SilvavsMara Romero BorellaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Saturday, September 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mayra Bueno Silva won

SUB

Style matchupMayra Bueno Silva: Well-roundedvsMara Romero Borella: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Mayra Bueno Silva wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Mayra Bueno Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mayra Bueno Silva at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mayra Bueno Silva enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Mara Romero Borella enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mayra Bueno Silva threatens submissions; Mara Romero Borella has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Mara Romero Borella has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Mayra Bueno Silva

Red Corner

Mara Romero Borella

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1453

Elo

1389

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mayra Bueno SilvaL5 streak

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 24

KOvs Macy Chiasson · Jun 24

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Feb 25

vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · Nov 25

DECvs Michelle Montague · Apr 26

latest

Mara Romero BorellaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 18

vs Taila Santos · Feb 19

KOvs Lauren Murphy · Aug 19

vs Montana De La Rosa · Feb 20

SUBvs Cortney Casey · May 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mayra Bueno SilvaMetricMara Romero Borella

3.52

Strikes / min

2.54

4.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

51%

Strike defense

71%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

1.83

64%

Takedown defense

66%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.19Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mayra Bueno SilvaMara Romero Borella

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mayra Bueno Silva(10 fights)Mara Romero Borella(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +64.2|Blue -64.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mayra Bueno SilvaTargetMara Romero Borella

By target zone

20% acc · 50%

Head

71% acc · 83%

0% acc

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 67%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mayra Bueno Silva rounds

even

Mara Romero Borella rounds

Round 1Mara Romero Borella edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 7

Sig Strikes

6 / 9

28%

Sig Str %

66%

3 / 8

Total Strikes

15 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mara Romero Borella	6 / 9	15 / 21	1 / 2	0
1	Mayra Bueno Silva	2 / 7	3 / 8	0 / 0	1

Mayra Bueno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights12

Mara Romero Borella

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8