← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexa Grasso won · U-DEC

Elo1514

Elo1512

Maycee BarbervsAlexa GrassoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Saturday, February 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexa Grasso won

U-DEC

Style matchupMaycee Barber: Elusive strikervsAlexa Grasso: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Maycee Barber wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Alexa Grasso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maycee Barber at -107 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Maycee Barber (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Maycee Barber

Red Corner

Alexa Grasso

Blue Corner

-107

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-107

(52%)

1514

Elo

1512

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maycee Barber

oldest →

vs Andrea Lee · Mar 23

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jun 23

vs Katlyn Cerminara · Mar 24

vs Karine Silva · Dec 25

KOvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 26

latest

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maycee BarberMetricAlexa Grasso

4.56

Strikes / min

4.11

2.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

55%

Strike defense

58%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.40

51%

Takedown defense

54%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.78Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maycee BarberAlexa Grasso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maycee Barber(10 fights)Alexa Grasso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maycee BarberTargetAlexa Grasso

By target zone

18% acc · 57%

Head

42% acc · 63%

78% acc · 35%

Body

64% acc · 24%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

50% acc · 13%

By position

15% acc · 45%

Distance

41% acc · 66%

65% acc · 50%

Clinch

65% acc · 34%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maycee Barber rounds

even

Alexa Grasso rounds

Round 1Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:02

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 2Alexa Grasso edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:55

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 3Maycee Barber edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control1:17

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 152

Sig Strikes

38 / 81

24.7%

Sig Str %

49.3%

50 / 165

Total Strikes

95 / 162

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

55.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:14

Ctrl Time

5:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexa Grasso	13 / 21	44 / 66	0 / 0	0
1	Maycee Barber	10 / 48	15 / 55	0 / 1	0
2	Alexa Grasso	12 / 36	30 / 59	0 / 0	1
2	Maycee Barber	8 / 44	10 / 46	1 / 1	0
3	Alexa Grasso	13 / 24	21 / 37	0 / 0	0
3	Maycee Barber	22 / 60	25 / 64	2 / 3	0

Maycee Barber

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14