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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Luke Sanders won · SUB R1

Elo1358

Elo1400

Maximo BlancovsLuke SandersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Luke Sanders won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:38

Style matchupMaximo Blanco: Well-roundedvsLuke Sanders: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Maximo Blanco wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Luke Sanders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maximo Blanco at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maximo Blanco has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Luke Sanders (53.5%).
Maximo Blanco has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Maximo Blanco

Red Corner

Luke Sanders

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1358

Elo

1400

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maximo Blanco

oldest →

vs Felipe Arantes · Feb 14

vs Andy Ogle · May 14

vs Dan Hooker · Sep 14

KOvs Mike de la Torre · Jul 15

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Sep 16

latest

Luke SandersL2 streak

oldest →

vs Patrick Williams · Apr 18

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 18

KOvs Renan Barao · Feb 19

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 20

vs Felipe Colares · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maximo BlancoMetricLuke Sanders

4.11

Strikes / min

6.61

3.19

Strikes absorbed / min

4.37

66%

Strike defense

50%

1.85

TDs / 15 min

0.71

63%

Takedown defense

72%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+2.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maximo BlancoLuke Sanders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maximo Blanco(9 fights)Luke Sanders(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.8|Blue +41.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maximo BlancoTargetLuke Sanders

By target zone

8% acc · 13%

Head

50% acc · 81%

100% acc · 44%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 44%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 92%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maximo Blanco rounds

even

Luke Sanders rounds

Round 1Luke Sanders edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 39

Sig Strikes

26 / 48

41%

Sig Str %

54%

17 / 40

Total Strikes

27 / 49

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luke Sanders	26 / 48	27 / 49	0 / 0	1
1	Maximo Blanco	16 / 39	17 / 40	1 / 1	1

Maximo Blanco

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Luke Sanders

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8