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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Max Holloway won · U-DEC R5
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration
Elo1504
Yair Rodriguez

Max HollowayvsYair RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsYair Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -675 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Yair Rodriguez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Max Holloway has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Yair Rodriguez
Blue Corner
-675
(87%)
Vegas Odds
+475
(17%)
1517
Elo
1504
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest
Yair Rodriguez
oldest →
W
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23
L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24
W
vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricYair Rodriguez
6.91
Strikes / min
4.65
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
58%
Strike defense
52%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
0.71
81%
Takedown defense
59%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1655 vs 1598Strikes7.2 vs 4.7Takedowns0.3 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.70Form0.1 vs 0.9
Max HollowayYair Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Max Holloway(10 fights)Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +13.6|Blue -13.6
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -456.0|Blue +456.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetYair Rodriguez

By target zone

129
46% acc · 56%
Head
78
32% acc · 49%
66
80% acc · 29%
Body
24
59% acc · 15%
35
81% acc · 15%
Leg
57
89% acc · 36%

By position

187
54% acc · 81%
Distance
152
44% acc · 96%
22
92% acc · 10%
Clinch
5
100% acc · 3%
21
64% acc · 9%
Ground
2
50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Max Holloway rounds
0
even
0
Yair Rodriguez rounds
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns1
Control0:14
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes58
Takedowns0
Control0:25
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns1
Control3:04
20Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 4Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns1
Control2:06
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes53
Takedowns0
Control1:00
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
230 / 404
Sig Strikes
159 / 352
57.2%
Sig Str %
44.2%
251 / 434
Total Strikes
186 / 383
3 / 5
TDs
1 / 5
66.7%
TD %
33.3%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
6:49
Ctrl Time
1:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yair Rodriguez37 / 7938 / 800 / 30
1Max Holloway38 / 5742 / 621 / 20
2Yair Rodriguez42 / 8443 / 850 / 00
2Max Holloway58 / 11059 / 1110 / 00
3Yair Rodriguez20 / 4720 / 501 / 10
3Max Holloway38 / 6646 / 811 / 20
4Max Holloway43 / 7749 / 841 / 11
4Yair Rodriguez24 / 6428 / 690 / 00
5Yair Rodriguez36 / 7857 / 990 / 10
5Max Holloway53 / 9455 / 960 / 00

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15