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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1517

Elo1490

Max HollowayvsWill ChopeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim · Saturday, January 4, 2014Singapore, Singapore

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:27

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsWill Chope: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Max Holloway has 81pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Will Chope (52.9%).
Will Chope has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Will Chope

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1517

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Will ChopeNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricWill Chope

6.91

Strikes / min

4.43

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

9.93

58%

Strike defense

46%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.00

81%

Takedown defense

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30Δ 7.80 — meaningful gap-5.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayWill Chope

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Will Chope(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.2|Blue -27.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -47.2|Blue +47.2

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetWill Chope

By target zone

49% acc · 78%

Head

22% acc · 70%

78% acc · 19%

Body

29% acc · 6%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

80% acc · 24%

By position

41% acc · 41%

Distance

25% acc · 85%

67% acc · 55%

Clinch

50% acc · 15%

60% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Will Chope rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 139

Sig Strikes

33 / 121

54%

Sig Str %

30.5%

79 / 145

Total Strikes

34 / 122

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Will Chope	26 / 102	26 / 102	0 / 2
1	Max Holloway	37 / 81	37 / 81	0 / 0
2	Will Chope	7 / 19	8 / 20	0 / 3
2	Max Holloway	37 / 58	42 / 64	0 / 0

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Will Chope

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach—

Fights1