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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Max Holloway won · U-DEC R3

Elo1517

Elo1493

Max HollowayvsRicardo LamasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Saturday, June 4, 2016Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ricardo Lamas has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Max Holloway has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Ricardo Lamas

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1517

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Ricardo Lamas

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17

vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18

KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18

KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19

vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricRicardo Lamas

6.91

Strikes / min

3.13

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

58%

Strike defense

57%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

1.84

81%

Takedown defense

46%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayRicardo Lamas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.8|Blue -24.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetRicardo Lamas

By target zone

45% acc · 78%

Head

34% acc · 55%

100% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 6%

79% acc · 11%

Leg

89% acc · 39%

By position

45% acc · 80%

Distance

45% acc · 89%

85% acc · 11%

Clinch

86% acc · 9%

91% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Ricardo Lamas rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:20

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control1:09

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:08

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

103 / 205

Sig Strikes

64 / 135

50.3%

Sig Str %

47.3%

111 / 213

Total Strikes

66 / 137

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:37

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ricardo Lamas	18 / 36	18 / 36	0 / 2	0
1	Max Holloway	25 / 48	26 / 49	0 / 0	0
2	Ricardo Lamas	19 / 44	20 / 45	0 / 3	0
2	Max Holloway	42 / 74	46 / 78	0 / 0	2
3	Ricardo Lamas	27 / 55	28 / 56	0 / 1	0
3	Max Holloway	36 / 83	39 / 86	0 / 0	0

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17