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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Max Holloway won · U-DEC R3
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration
Elo1351

Max HollowayvsPat SchillingUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · Friday, June 1, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Max Holloway has 81pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Pat Schilling
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1517
Elo
1351
34
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest
Pat Schilling
oldest →
L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Jan 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricPat Schilling
6.91
Strikes / min
1.87
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
8.24
58%
Strike defense
52%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
0.00
81%
Takedown defense
0%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 8.67 — meaningful gap-6.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1484Strikes11.0 vs 4.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.9 vs -1.0
Max HollowayPat Schilling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901500151015201530← oldermost recent →
Max Holloway(10 fights)Pat Schilling(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +166.0|Blue -166.0
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -15.0|Blue +15.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetPat Schilling

By target zone

86
38% acc · 73%
Head
19
20% acc · 70%
30
73% acc · 25%
Body
5
50% acc · 19%
2
100% acc · 2%
Leg
3
100% acc · 11%

By position

105
43% acc · 89%
Distance
27
25% acc · 100%
8
62% acc · 7%
Clinch
0
0% acc
5
71% acc · 4%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Max Holloway rounds
0
even
0
Pat Schilling rounds
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:15
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes50
Takedowns0
Control0:28
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes45
Takedowns0
Control0:14
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
118 / 267
Sig Strikes
27 / 108
42.7%
Sig Str %
25%
119 / 268
Total Strikes
27 / 108
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 17
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:57
Ctrl Time
1:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Pat Schilling11 / 4211 / 420 / 70
1Max Holloway23 / 7524 / 760 / 00
2Pat Schilling9 / 309 / 300 / 70
2Max Holloway50 / 10150 / 1010 / 00
3Pat Schilling7 / 367 / 360 / 30
3Max Holloway45 / 9145 / 910 / 00

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33

Pat Schilling

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2