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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration
Elo1493
Jose Aldo

Max HollowayvsJose AldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Saturday, December 2, 2017Detroit, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:51

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsJose Aldo: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Jose Aldo
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
1517
Elo
1493
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest
Jose AldoL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rob Font · Dec 21
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22
W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24
L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricJose Aldo
6.91
Strikes / min
3.65
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.81
58%
Strike defense
60%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
0.47
81%
Takedown defense
92%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap-0.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1659 vs 1595Strikes68.4 vs 56.4Takedowns0.2 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.41 vs 0.30Form1.1 vs -0.3
Max HollowayJose Aldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Max Holloway(10 fights)Jose Aldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +24.2|Blue -24.2
Recent Form
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetJose Aldo

By target zone

135
39% acc · 78%
Head
65
49% acc · 75%
36
80% acc · 21%
Body
13
62% acc · 15%
3
100% acc · 2%
Leg
9
100% acc · 10%

By position

144
40% acc · 83%
Distance
84
53% acc · 97%
16
89% acc · 9%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 3%
14
61% acc · 8%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Max Holloway rounds
0
even
0
Jose Aldo rounds
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns0
Control0:00
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes108
Takedowns0
Control0:46
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
174 / 397
Sig Strikes
87 / 163
39.7%
Sig Str %
52%
181 / 406
Total Strikes
89 / 165
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:46
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jose Aldo18 / 4818 / 480 / 00
1Max Holloway25 / 8925 / 890 / 00
2Jose Aldo31 / 5232 / 530 / 00
2Max Holloway41 / 10442 / 1050 / 00
3Jose Aldo38 / 6339 / 640 / 10
3Max Holloway108 / 204114 / 2120 / 00

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights23