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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Max Holloway won · U-DEC R3
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration
Elo1473
Jeremy Stephens

Max HollowayvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Max Holloway has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Jeremy Stephens
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
1517
Elo
1473
34
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest
Jeremy StephensL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20
L
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21
L
vs Mason Jones · May 25
L
SUBvs King Green · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricJeremy Stephens
6.91
Strikes / min
3.13
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
58%
Strike defense
57%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
1.10
81%
Takedown defense
61%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 2.42 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1606 vs 1524Strikes61.9 vs 33.6Takedowns0.1 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.38 vs 0.43Form1.0 vs 0.3
Max HollowayJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Max Holloway(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +44.9|Blue -44.9
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -43.0|Blue +43.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

40
52% acc · 70%
Head
12
22% acc · 26%
12
71% acc · 21%
Body
11
79% acc · 23%
5
100% acc · 9%
Leg
24
92% acc · 51%

By position

42
52% acc · 74%
Distance
45
53% acc · 96%
6
75% acc · 11%
Clinch
2
20% acc · 4%
9
90% acc · 16%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Max Holloway rounds
0
even
0
Jeremy Stephens rounds
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control1:10
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control1:38
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:38
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
57 / 99
Sig Strikes
47 / 95
56%
Sig Str %
49.7%
79 / 122
Total Strikes
60 / 110
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 12
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:26
Ctrl Time
2:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jeremy Stephens15 / 2519 / 300 / 50
1Max Holloway15 / 2921 / 360 / 00
2Jeremy Stephens11 / 2617 / 330 / 50
2Max Holloway16 / 3119 / 340 / 00
3Jeremy Stephens21 / 4424 / 470 / 20
3Max Holloway26 / 3939 / 521 / 10

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights27