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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Max Holloway won · U-DEC R5

Elo1517

Elo1494

Max HollowayvsDustin PoirierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -122 American odds

+$82 profit

$182 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Dustin Poirier

Blue Corner

-122

(55%)

Vegas Odds

-104

(51%)

1517

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Dustin Poirier

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricDustin Poirier

6.91

Strikes / min

5.24

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

58%

Strike defense

52%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

1.15

81%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayDustin Poirier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.7|Blue -23.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetDustin Poirier

By target zone

103

41% acc · 52%

Head

40% acc · 86%

80% acc · 32%

Body

60% acc · 6%

74% acc · 16%

Leg

90% acc · 8%

By position

182

52% acc · 92%

Distance

102

42% acc · 94%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

70% acc · 8%

Ground

67% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Dustin Poirier rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control1:24

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

198 / 375

Sig Strikes

109 / 255

53%

Sig Str %

44.2%

201 / 378

Total Strikes

109 / 255

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Poirier	16 / 32	16 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Max Holloway	26 / 64	26 / 64	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Poirier	25 / 43	25 / 43	0 / 1	1
2	Max Holloway	44 / 67	47 / 70	0 / 0	0
3	Dustin Poirier	21 / 49	21 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Max Holloway	38 / 61	38 / 61	0 / 0	0
4	Dustin Poirier	22 / 68	22 / 68	0 / 0	0
4	Max Holloway	44 / 84	44 / 84	0 / 0	0
5	Dustin Poirier	25 / 63	25 / 63	0 / 0	0
5	Max Holloway	46 / 99	46 / 99	0 / 0	0

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31