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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Max Holloway won · U-DEC R3

Elo1517

Elo1359

Max HollowayvsCole MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · Saturday, February 14, 2015Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Cole Miller has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Cole Miller

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1517

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

175.26 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Cole MillerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Aug 13

vs Andy Ogle · Oct 13

SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 16

vs Mizuto Hirota · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricCole Miller

6.91

Strikes / min

3.00

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

58%

Strike defense

59%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.60

81%

Takedown defense

38%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30Δ 3.18 — meaningful gap-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayCole Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Cole Miller(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +158.7|Blue -158.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -262.0|Blue +262.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetCole Miller

By target zone

28% acc · 70%

Head

13% acc · 39%

57% acc · 23%

Body

42% acc · 26%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

55% acc · 35%

By position

29% acc · 81%

Distance

21% acc · 84%

64% acc · 12%

Clinch

63% acc · 16%

67% acc · 7%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Cole Miller rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:15

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:37

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:41

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 176

Sig Strikes

31 / 132

30.3%

Sig Str %

23%

66 / 186

Total Strikes

35 / 137

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:33

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cole Miller	10 / 39	11 / 40	0 / 0
1	Max Holloway	12 / 48	14 / 51	0 / 0
2	Cole Miller	12 / 45	13 / 47	0 / 1
2	Max Holloway	12 / 50	14 / 52	1 / 1
3	Cole Miller	9 / 48	11 / 50	0 / 1
3	Max Holloway	33 / 78	38 / 83	0 / 0

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Cole Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12