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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1517

Elo1355

Max HollowayvsClay CollardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · Saturday, August 23, 2014Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:47

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsClay Collard: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -950 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Collard has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Clay Collard

Blue Corner

-950

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+625

(14%)

1517

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Clay CollardL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alex White · Dec 14

vs Gabriel Benitez · Jun 15

DECvs Tiago Trator · Sep 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricClay Collard

6.91

Strikes / min

4.22

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

5.00

58%

Strike defense

50%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

2.81

81%

Takedown defense

71%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30Δ 3.08 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayClay Collard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Clay Collard(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +162.2|Blue -162.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -46.9|Blue +46.9

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetClay Collard

By target zone

56% acc · 77%

Head

25% acc · 54%

90% acc · 21%

Body

52% acc · 23%

60% acc · 2%

Leg

70% acc · 23%

By position

49% acc · 56%

Distance

29% acc · 74%

82% acc · 11%

Clinch

67% acc · 20%

91% acc · 32%

Ground

57% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Clay Collard rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:05

44Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:16

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

Round 3Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control2:14

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

124 / 204

Sig Strikes

70 / 209

61.3%

Sig Str %

30.7%

137 / 219

Total Strikes

73 / 213

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 10

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:35

Ctrl Time

1:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Clay Collard	44 / 116	44 / 116	1 / 2
1	Max Holloway	49 / 92	49 / 92	0 / 0
2	Clay Collard	17 / 60	17 / 60	0 / 5
2	Max Holloway	28 / 53	34 / 59	0 / 0
3	Clay Collard	9 / 33	12 / 37	0 / 3
3	Max Holloway	47 / 59	54 / 68	0 / 0

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Clay Collard

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4