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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration
Elo1521

Max HollowayvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:39

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Max Holloway has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Max Holloway has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Charles Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Charles Oliveira
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1517
Elo
1521
34
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest
Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24
W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25
W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricCharles Oliveira
6.91
Strikes / min
3.23
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
58%
Strike defense
48%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
2.29
81%
Takedown defense
54%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 2.12 — meaningful gap+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1592 vs 1563Strikes65.9 vs 25.4Takedowns0.1 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.42 vs 1.46Form1.0 vs 0.9
Max HollowayCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Max Holloway(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -3.8|Blue +3.8
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +2.3|Blue -2.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

6
30% acc · 43%
Head
3
20% acc · 60%
8
89% acc · 57%
Body
1
100% acc · 20%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 20%

By position

14
48% acc · 100%
Distance
4
25% acc · 80%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 20%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Max Holloway rounds
0
even
0
Charles Oliveira rounds
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:06
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 29
Sig Strikes
5 / 17
48%
Sig Str %
29%
14 / 29
Total Strikes
5 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:06
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Charles Oliveira5 / 175 / 170 / 10
1Max Holloway14 / 2914 / 290 / 00

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36