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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Max Holloway won · U-DEC

Elo1517

Elo1474

Max HollowayvsCalvin KattarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · Saturday, January 16, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

U-DEC

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsCalvin Kattar: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -162 American odds

+$62 profit

$162 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Calvin Kattar enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Calvin Kattar

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+138

(42%)

1517

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Calvin KattarL5 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 22

KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 24

vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25

vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricCalvin Kattar

6.91

Strikes / min

4.41

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

58%

Strike defense

54%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.34

81%

Takedown defense

77%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30Δ 4.44 — meaningful gap-2.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayCalvin Kattar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Calvin Kattar(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.9|Blue -43.9

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetCalvin Kattar

By target zone

274

50% acc · 62%

Head

42% acc · 74%

117

88% acc · 26%

Body

70% acc · 12%

93% acc · 12%

Leg

78% acc · 14%

By position

439

60% acc · 99%

Distance

129

46% acc · 97%

86% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Calvin Kattar rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes56

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes89

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes75

Takedowns0

Control0:13

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes141

Takedowns0

Control0:14

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 5Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes84

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

445 / 744

Sig Strikes

133 / 283

58%

Sig Str %

46.4%

447 / 746

Total Strikes

134 / 284

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Calvin Kattar	24 / 47	24 / 47	0 / 0
1	Max Holloway	56 / 108	56 / 108	0 / 0
2	Calvin Kattar	20 / 48	20 / 48	0 / 1
2	Max Holloway	89 / 164	89 / 164	0 / 0
3	Calvin Kattar	29 / 59	30 / 60	0 / 1
3	Max Holloway	75 / 139	77 / 141	0 / 0
4	Max Holloway	141 / 191	141 / 191	0 / 1
4	Calvin Kattar	34 / 71	34 / 71	0 / 0
5	Calvin Kattar	26 / 58	26 / 58	0 / 0
5	Max Holloway	84 / 142	84 / 142	0 / 0

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15