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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R4
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration
Elo1489
Brian Ortega

Max HollowayvsBrian OrtegaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 8, 2018Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Max Holloway has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Brian Ortega
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
1517
Elo
1489
34
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest
Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21
L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24
L
vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricBrian Ortega
6.91
Strikes / min
3.84
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
6.38
58%
Strike defense
49%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
0.93
81%
Takedown defense
54%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 4.84 — meaningful gap-2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1672 vs 1602Strikes74.3 vs 35.6Takedowns0.2 vs 0.1Sub Atts0.39 vs 1.14Form1.1 vs 1.1
Max HollowayBrian Ortega

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Max Holloway(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +28.7|Blue -28.7
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetBrian Ortega

By target zone

244
57% acc · 84%
Head
87
33% acc · 79%
41
75% acc · 14%
Body
16
89% acc · 15%
5
100% acc · 2%
Leg
7
100% acc · 6%

By position

281
59% acc · 97%
Distance
101
36% acc · 92%
8
80% acc · 3%
Clinch
9
90% acc · 8%
1
100% acc · 0%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Max Holloway rounds
0
even
0
Brian Ortega rounds
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes66
Takedowns0
Control0:00
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes50
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:05Control
Round 4Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes134
Takedowns1
Control0:16
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
290 / 490
Sig Strikes
110 / 292
56.5%
Sig Str %
38%
307 / 507
Total Strikes
112 / 294
1 / 1
TDs
2 / 11
100%
TD %
20.8%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:16
Ctrl Time
2:25

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Brian Ortega19 / 6519 / 651 / 30
1Max Holloway40 / 8446 / 900 / 00
2Brian Ortega33 / 9233 / 920 / 10
2Max Holloway66 / 12666 / 1260 / 00
3Max Holloway50 / 8454 / 880 / 00
3Brian Ortega30 / 8132 / 831 / 20
4Brian Ortega28 / 5428 / 540 / 50
4Max Holloway134 / 196141 / 2031 / 10

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13