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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Max Holloway won · U-DEC R5
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration
Elo1511

Max HollowayvsArnold AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsArnold Allen: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -172 American odds

+$58 profit

$158 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Arnold Allen
Blue Corner
-172
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+144
(41%)
1517
Elo
1511
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest
Arnold Allen
oldest →
W
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Oct 22
L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24
W
vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24
L
vs Jean Silva · Jan 26
W
DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricArnold Allen
6.91
Strikes / min
3.47
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.04
58%
Strike defense
60%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
0.86
81%
Takedown defense
71%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap+0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1653 vs 1641Strikes7.2 vs 3.5Takedowns0.3 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.30Form-0.1 vs 1.0
Max HollowayArnold Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Max Holloway(10 fights)Arnold Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +6.4|Blue -6.4
Recent Form
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score
Red +2.2|Blue -2.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +119.0|Blue -119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetArnold Allen

By target zone

77
43% acc · 52%
Head
48
28% acc · 63%
42
88% acc · 29%
Body
18
50% acc · 24%
28
82% acc · 19%
Leg
10
63% acc · 13%

By position

146
56% acc · 99%
Distance
76
34% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 1%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Max Holloway rounds
0
even
0
Arnold Allen rounds
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:03
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
147 / 262
Sig Strikes
76 / 225
56.2%
Sig Str %
33.8%
149 / 264
Total Strikes
80 / 229
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:42

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Arnold Allen11 / 3311 / 330 / 00
1Max Holloway27 / 6227 / 620 / 00
2Arnold Allen19 / 4219 / 420 / 00
2Max Holloway25 / 4925 / 490 / 00
3Arnold Allen14 / 4514 / 450 / 00
3Max Holloway33 / 5133 / 510 / 00
4Max Holloway29 / 5229 / 520 / 00
4Arnold Allen12 / 3912 / 390 / 00
5Arnold Allen20 / 6624 / 700 / 00
5Max Holloway33 / 4835 / 500 / 00

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights14