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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration
Elo1493

Max HollowayvsAnthony PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:50

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsAnthony Pettis: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(71.7%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Max Holloway has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Pettis
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1517
Elo
1493
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
175.26 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest
Anthony PettisW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19
L
vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20
W
vs Donald Cerrone · May 20
W
vs Alex Morono · Dec 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricAnthony Pettis
6.91
Strikes / min
3.05
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
58%
Strike defense
54%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
0.61
81%
Takedown defense
60%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1633 vs 1548Strikes64.3 vs 31.2Takedowns0.1 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.47 vs 0.40Form1.0 vs -0.1
Max HollowayAnthony Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Max Holloway(10 fights)Anthony Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +24.4|Blue -24.4
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red +2.3|Blue -2.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetAnthony Pettis

By target zone

48
34% acc · 51%
Head
25
25% acc · 47%
29
71% acc · 31%
Body
17
39% acc · 32%
17
71% acc · 18%
Leg
11
79% acc · 21%

By position

76
40% acc · 81%
Distance
53
34% acc · 100%
16
89% acc · 17%
Clinch
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Max Holloway rounds
0
even
0
Anthony Pettis rounds
Round 1Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns1
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes45
Takedowns2
Control0:26
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
94 / 208
Sig Strikes
53 / 158
43.7%
Sig Str %
33%
98 / 212
Total Strikes
55 / 160
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 2
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:37
Ctrl Time
1:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Pettis19 / 5619 / 560 / 10
1Max Holloway23 / 5823 / 580 / 00
2Anthony Pettis15 / 5116 / 520 / 10
2Max Holloway26 / 6329 / 660 / 00
3Anthony Pettis19 / 5120 / 520 / 00
3Max Holloway45 / 8746 / 882 / 20

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20