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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Max Holloway won · SUB R3

Elo1517

Elo1479

Max HollowayvsAndre FiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · Saturday, April 26, 2014Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:39

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsAndre Fili: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Fili has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Andre Fili

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1517

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Andre FiliL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · Jun 24

SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 25

vs Christian Rodriguez · Aug 25

vs Jose Delgado · Mar 26

KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricAndre Fili

6.91

Strikes / min

3.88

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

58%

Strike defense

50%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

2.32

81%

Takedown defense

71%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayAndre Fili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Andre Fili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.2|Blue -38.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetAndre Fili

By target zone

25% acc · 66%

Head

18% acc · 41%

63% acc · 32%

Body

43% acc · 20%

33% acc · 2%

Leg

89% acc · 39%

By position

25% acc · 64%

Distance

31% acc · 91%

61% acc · 36%

Clinch

40% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Andre Fili rounds

Round 1Andre Fili edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 149

Sig Strikes

44 / 139

31%

Sig Str %

28%

57 / 161

Total Strikes

46 / 141

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 12

—

TD %

45.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andre Fili	31 / 82	32 / 83	1 / 1	0
1	Max Holloway	17 / 58	18 / 59	0 / 0	0
2	Andre Fili	8 / 38	8 / 38	1 / 6	0
2	Max Holloway	18 / 53	22 / 57	0 / 0	0
3	Andre Fili	5 / 19	6 / 20	1 / 5	0
3	Max Holloway	12 / 38	17 / 45	0 / 0	2

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Andre Fili

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights26