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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R5

Elo1517

Elo1521

Max HollowayvsAlexander VolkanovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Saturday, December 14, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsAlexander Volkanovski: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway

Red Corner

Alexander Volkanovski

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1517

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricAlexander Volkanovski

6.91

Strikes / min

5.99

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

58%

Strike defense

58%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

1.63

81%

Takedown defense

68%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.30evenly matched on net striking+2.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max HollowayAlexander Volkanovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Holloway(10 fights)Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.2|Blue +3.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetAlexander Volkanovski

By target zone

36% acc · 63%

Head

38% acc · 43%

73% acc · 24%

Body

47% acc · 10%

65% acc · 13%

Leg

81% acc · 48%

By position

132

44% acc · 99%

Distance

156

52% acc · 99%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Holloway rounds

even

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 5Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:02

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

134 / 303

Sig Strikes

157 / 303

43.8%

Sig Str %

51.8%

135 / 304

Total Strikes

157 / 303

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Volkanovski	27 / 56	27 / 56	0 / 1
1	Max Holloway	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	28 / 48	28 / 48	0 / 0
2	Max Holloway	22 / 55	22 / 55	0 / 0
3	Alexander Volkanovski	35 / 63	35 / 63	0 / 0
3	Max Holloway	22 / 60	22 / 60	0 / 0
4	Max Holloway	37 / 71	37 / 71	0 / 0
4	Alexander Volkanovski	36 / 75	36 / 75	0 / 1
5	Alexander Volkanovski	31 / 61	31 / 61	0 / 2
5	Max Holloway	34 / 77	35 / 78	0 / 0

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18