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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Victor Valenzuela won · Decision R3
Elo1470
Elo1520

Max GriffinvsVictor ValenzuelaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Saturday, April 25, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Victor Valenzuela won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Griffin: Well-roundedvsVictor Valenzuela: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Max Griffin wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Victor Valenzuela wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Max Griffin has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Max Griffin
Red Corner
VS
Victor Valenzuela
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1470
Elo
1520
40
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max GriffinL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tim Means · Oct 22
L
vs Michael Morales · Jul 23
W
vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24
L
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25
latest
Victor ValenzuelaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max GriffinMetricVictor Valenzuela
3.70
Strikes / min
3.47
3.69
Strikes absorbed / min
4.81
58%
Strike defense
51%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
0.63
69%
Takedown defense
55%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.01Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-1.34
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Max Griffin(10 fights)Victor Valenzuela(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red -49.1|Blue +49.1
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19

Victor Valenzuela

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights1