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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Morales won · U-DEC R3

Elo1470

Elo1551

Max GriffinvsMichael MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Saturday, July 1, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Morales won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Griffin: Well-roundedvsMichael Morales: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Michael Morales wins(71.9%)

Actual result: Michael Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Morales at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Michael Morales has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Max Griffin

Red Corner

Michael Morales

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1470

Elo

1551

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max GriffinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Oct 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Michael MoralesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Adam Fugitt · Jul 22

vs Jake Matthews · Nov 23

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 24

KOvs Gilbert Burns · May 25

KOvs Sean Brady · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max GriffinMetricMichael Morales

3.70

Strikes / min

5.68

3.69

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

58%

Strike defense

53%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.04

69%

Takedown defense

89%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01Δ 2.41 — meaningful gap+2.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max GriffinMichael Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Griffin(10 fights)Michael Morales(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -80.2|Blue +80.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max GriffinTargetMichael Morales

By target zone

30% acc · 78%

Head

41% acc · 82%

100% acc · 11%

Body

63% acc · 7%

80% acc · 11%

Leg

73% acc · 11%

By position

35% acc · 97%

Distance

43% acc · 94%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Griffin rounds

even

Michael Morales rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:14

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Michael Morales edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:05

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Michael Morales edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:51

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 102

Sig Strikes

72 / 164

35.7%

Sig Str %

43%

39 / 105

Total Strikes

73 / 165

0 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:10

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Morales	15 / 40	15 / 40	0 / 0
1	Max Griffin	11 / 26	13 / 28	0 / 2
2	Michael Morales	31 / 70	31 / 70	0 / 0
2	Max Griffin	15 / 38	15 / 38	0 / 2
3	Michael Morales	26 / 54	27 / 55	1 / 1
3	Max Griffin	10 / 38	11 / 39	0 / 4

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Michael Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7