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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Max Griffin won · S-DEC R3

Elo1470

Elo1512

Max GriffinvsJeremiah WellsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Saturday, February 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Max Griffin won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Griffin: Well-roundedvsJeremiah Wells: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jeremiah Wells wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Max Griffin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Griffin enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Max Griffin has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Max Griffin has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jeremiah Wells (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Max Griffin

Red Corner

Jeremiah Wells

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1470

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max GriffinL4 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Oct 22

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Jeremiah Wells

oldest →

SUBvs Blood Diamond · Feb 22

KOvs Court McGee · Jun 22

vs Matthew Semelsberger · Apr 23

SUBvs Carlston Harris · Aug 23

vs Themba Gorimbo · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max GriffinMetricJeremiah Wells

3.70

Strikes / min

2.35

3.69

Strikes absorbed / min

1.28

58%

Strike defense

48%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

3.06

69%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max GriffinJeremiah Wells

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Griffin(10 fights)Jeremiah Wells(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.6|Blue +41.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max GriffinTargetJeremiah Wells

By target zone

44% acc · 81%

Head

36% acc · 84%

100% acc · 15%

Body

71% acc · 16%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

0% acc

By position

47% acc · 92%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Griffin rounds

even

Jeremiah Wells rounds

Round 1Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:10

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:14

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:16

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 53

Sig Strikes

32 / 86

49%

Sig Str %

35.3%

36 / 65

Total Strikes

43 / 97

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:40

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremiah Wells	7 / 26	7 / 26	1 / 2
1	Max Griffin	6 / 18	13 / 26	1 / 1
2	Jeremiah Wells	17 / 36	17 / 36	0 / 0
2	Max Griffin	10 / 16	11 / 17	0 / 0
3	Jeremiah Wells	8 / 24	19 / 35	0 / 0
3	Max Griffin	10 / 19	12 / 22	0 / 1

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Jeremiah Wells

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7