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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Chris Curtis won · S-DEC R3

Elo1470

Elo1492

Max GriffinvsChris CurtisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Chris Curtis won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Griffin: Well-roundedvsChris Curtis: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Chris Curtis wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Chris Curtis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Curtis at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Curtis enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Max Griffin

Red Corner

Chris Curtis

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1470

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max GriffinL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Oct 22

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Chris CurtisL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 23

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jan 24

vs Brendan Allen · Apr 24

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 25

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max GriffinMetricChris Curtis

3.70

Strikes / min

5.52

3.69

Strikes absorbed / min

5.75

58%

Strike defense

54%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.00

69%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max GriffinChris Curtis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Griffin(10 fights)Chris Curtis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.5|Blue +21.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max GriffinTargetChris Curtis

By target zone

26% acc · 64%

Head

33% acc · 69%

67% acc · 24%

Body

86% acc · 28%

70% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

33% acc · 98%

Distance

41% acc · 95%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Griffin rounds

even

Chris Curtis rounds

Round 1Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:34

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:29

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 178

Sig Strikes

64 / 155

33.7%

Sig Str %

38%

63 / 185

Total Strikes

71 / 162

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Curtis	8 / 32	11 / 35	0 / 0
1	Max Griffin	21 / 48	22 / 51	0 / 0
2	Chris Curtis	21 / 52	23 / 54	0 / 0
2	Max Griffin	17 / 58	19 / 61	0 / 0
3	Chris Curtis	35 / 71	37 / 73	0 / 1
3	Max Griffin	21 / 72	22 / 73	0 / 0

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11