Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Morono won · U-DEC R3

Elo1470

Elo1478

Max GriffinvsAlex MoronoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Alex Morono won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Griffin: Well-roundedvsAlex Morono: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Max Griffin wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Alex Morono wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Griffin at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Max Griffin has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Max Griffin has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Max Griffin

Red Corner

Alex Morono

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1470

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max GriffinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max GriffinMetricAlex Morono

3.70

Strikes / min

4.90

3.69

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

58%

Strike defense

55%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.32

69%

Takedown defense

47%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Max GriffinAlex Morono

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Max Griffin(10 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.2|Blue +7.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max GriffinTargetAlex Morono

By target zone

32% acc · 49%

Head

26% acc · 74%

73% acc · 44%

Body

73% acc · 14%

83% acc · 7%

Leg

91% acc · 12%

By position

44% acc · 92%

Distance

29% acc · 84%

56% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 15%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Max Griffin rounds

even

Alex Morono rounds

Round 1Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns0

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns4

Control2:32

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 166

Sig Strikes

81 / 255

46.7%

Sig Str %

29.7%

94 / 189

Total Strikes

87 / 261

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

80%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:35

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Morono	31 / 104	31 / 104	0 / 0
1	Max Griffin	24 / 63	24 / 63	0 / 0
2	Alex Morono	40 / 110	46 / 116	0 / 1
2	Max Griffin	30 / 67	32 / 69	0 / 0
3	Alex Morono	10 / 41	10 / 41	0 / 0
3	Max Griffin	21 / 36	38 / 57	4 / 5

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23