Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mauricio Ruffy won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1553

Elo1490

Mauricio RuffyvsJamie MullarkeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Mauricio Ruffy won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:42

Style matchupMauricio Ruffy: Pressure fightervsJamie Mullarkey: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jamie Mullarkey wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Mauricio Ruffy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Ruffy is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Jamie Mullarkey has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Mauricio Ruffy has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Ruffy

Red Corner

Jamie Mullarkey

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1553

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuffyW2 streak

oldest →

vs James Llontop · Nov 24

KOvs King Green · Mar 25

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 25

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jan 26

KOvs Michael Chandler · Jun 26

latest

Jamie Mullarkey

oldest →

KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 23

vs John Makdessi · Sep 23

KOvs Nasrat Haqparast · Dec 23

vs Rolando Bedoya · Sep 25

SUBvs Quillan Salkilld · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuffyMetricJamie Mullarkey

4.19

Strikes / min

4.10

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.28

58%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.46

85%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuffyJamie Mullarkey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Ruffy(6 fights)Jamie Mullarkey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +63.1|Blue -63.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuffyTargetJamie Mullarkey

By target zone

60% acc · 84%

Head

25% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 29%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

75% acc · 21%

By position

59% acc · 88%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Ruffy rounds

even

Jamie Mullarkey rounds

Round 1Mauricio Ruffy edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 40

Sig Strikes

14 / 38

62%

Sig Str %

36%

25 / 40

Total Strikes

14 / 38

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamie Mullarkey	14 / 38	14 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Mauricio Ruffy	25 / 40	25 / 40	0 / 1	0

Mauricio Ruffy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Jamie Mullarkey

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13