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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mauricio Rua won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1447

Elo1501

Mauricio RuavsTyson PedroUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Mauricio Rua won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:43

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Mauricio Rua wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at +415 American odds

+$415 profit

$515 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tyson Pedro is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Mauricio Rua has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Tyson Pedro

Blue Corner

+415

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-525

(84%)

1447

Elo

1501

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Tyson Pedro

oldest →

KOvs Ike Villanueva · Apr 22

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Aug 22

vs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 23

KOvs Anton Turkalj · Sep 23

vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricTyson Pedro

3.57

Strikes / min

2.90

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.39

54%

Strike defense

56%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

0.76

49%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaTyson Pedro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Tyson Pedro(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.2|Blue +53.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetTyson Pedro

By target zone

51% acc · 77%

Head

64% acc · 68%

67% acc · 7%

Body

90% acc · 29%

63% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

46% acc · 40%

Distance

64% acc · 68%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

91% acc · 32%

61% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Tyson Pedro rounds

Round 1Tyson Pedro edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:35

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control4:33

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 56

Sig Strikes

31 / 44

53%

Sig Str %

57.7%

62 / 94

Total Strikes

36 / 49

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

66.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:20

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tyson Pedro	30 / 41	35 / 46	0 / 1	1
1	Mauricio Rua	10 / 21	12 / 23	1 / 3	0
2	Tyson Pedro	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0
2	Mauricio Rua	6 / 11	36 / 47	2 / 2	0
3	Tyson Pedro	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
3	Mauricio Rua	14 / 24	14 / 24	0 / 0	0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Tyson Pedro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11