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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mauricio Rua won · S-DEC R3

Elo1447

Elo1387

Mauricio RuavsRogerio NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Mauricio Rua won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Mauricio Rua wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Mauricio Rua has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Rogerio Nogueira

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1447

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 18

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Rogerio Nogueira

oldest →

vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16

KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18

KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricRogerio Nogueira

3.57

Strikes / min

2.43

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

54%

Strike defense

59%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

0.64

49%

Takedown defense

62%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaRogerio Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.7|Blue -60.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetRogerio Nogueira

By target zone

38% acc · 50%

Head

43% acc · 85%

79% acc · 20%

Body

78% acc · 15%

94% acc · 30%

Leg

By position

49% acc · 83%

Distance

43% acc · 89%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Rogerio Nogueira rounds

Round 1Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:29

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rogerio Nogueira edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:11

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 3Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:17

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 103

Sig Strikes

46 / 100

51.7%

Sig Str %

46.3%

78 / 129

Total Strikes

75 / 129

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:57

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rogerio Nogueira	13 / 30	23 / 40	0 / 0
1	Mauricio Rua	16 / 36	24 / 46	1 / 1
2	Rogerio Nogueira	15 / 39	34 / 58	0 / 0
2	Mauricio Rua	15 / 31	15 / 31	0 / 2
3	Rogerio Nogueira	18 / 31	18 / 31	0 / 0
3	Mauricio Rua	23 / 36	39 / 52	1 / 1

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12