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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mauricio Rua won · U-DEC R3

Elo1447

Elo1387

Mauricio RuavsRogerio NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · Saturday, August 1, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Mauricio Rua won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Mauricio Rua wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Mauricio Rua has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Rogerio Nogueira

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1447

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16

KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18

KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19

vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricRogerio Nogueira

3.57

Strikes / min

2.43

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

54%

Strike defense

59%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

0.64

49%

Takedown defense

62%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaRogerio Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.7|Blue -60.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetRogerio Nogueira

By target zone

41% acc · 57%

Head

35% acc · 87%

94% acc · 28%

Body

75% acc · 10%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

56% acc · 89%

Distance

36% acc · 76%

25% acc · 4%

Clinch

48% acc · 24%

67% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Rogerio Nogueira rounds

Round 1Rogerio Nogueira edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:37

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:42

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 98

Sig Strikes

63 / 166

59.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

82 / 130

Total Strikes

73 / 177

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

44.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:19

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rogerio Nogueira	38 / 88	40 / 91	0 / 0	0
1	Mauricio Rua	16 / 42	17 / 43	0 / 1	0
2	Rogerio Nogueira	6 / 16	14 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Mauricio Rua	13 / 16	29 / 34	1 / 1	0
3	Rogerio Nogueira	19 / 62	19 / 62	0 / 0	1
3	Mauricio Rua	24 / 40	36 / 53	1 / 3	0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12