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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Paul Craig won · KO/TKO

Elo1447

Elo1473

Mauricio RuavsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Saturday, November 21, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paul Craig won

KO/TKO

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(59.6%)

Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Mauricio Rua is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Mauricio Rua has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1447

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 18

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricPaul Craig

3.57

Strikes / min

2.50

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

54%

Strike defense

43%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

1.43

49%

Takedown defense

35%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.4|Blue +25.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

27% acc · 60%

Head

45% acc · 59%

50% acc · 20%

Body

44% acc · 14%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

80% acc · 28%

By position

35% acc · 90%

Distance

46% acc · 55%

Clinch

36% acc · 14%

50% acc · 10%

Ground

82% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Paul Craig edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:44

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 2Paul Craig edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 28

Sig Strikes

29 / 57

35%

Sig Str %

48%

25 / 46

Total Strikes

54 / 88

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 8

—

TD %

53%

Sub Att

Rev

1:44

Ctrl Time

3:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Craig	8 / 24	21 / 39	2 / 3
1	Mauricio Rua	6 / 15	14 / 26	0 / 0
2	Paul Craig	21 / 33	33 / 49	2 / 5
2	Mauricio Rua	4 / 13	11 / 20	0 / 0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20