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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ovince Saint Preux won · S-DEC R3

Elo1447

Elo1497

Mauricio RuavsOvince Saint PreuxUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Ovince Saint Preux won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsOvince Saint Preux: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Ovince Saint Preux wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ovince Saint Preux has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ovince Saint Preux (53.5%).
Ovince Saint Preux has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Ovince Saint Preux

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1447

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 18

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 20

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricOvince Saint Preux

3.57

Strikes / min

3.03

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

54%

Strike defense

47%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

1.09

49%

Takedown defense

67%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaOvince Saint Preux

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetOvince Saint Preux

By target zone

34% acc · 33%

Head

32% acc · 29%

65% acc · 20%

Body

84% acc · 58%

86% acc · 46%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

55% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ovince Saint Preux edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 99

Sig Strikes

62 / 112

53.7%

Sig Str %

55%

54 / 99

Total Strikes

62 / 112

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ovince Saint Preux	20 / 34	20 / 34	0 / 0
1	Mauricio Rua	20 / 38	20 / 38	0 / 0
2	Ovince Saint Preux	20 / 39	20 / 39	0 / 0
2	Mauricio Rua	21 / 33	21 / 33	0 / 0
3	Ovince Saint Preux	22 / 39	22 / 39	0 / 1
3	Mauricio Rua	13 / 28	13 / 28	0 / 0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28