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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Ovince Saint Preux won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1447

Elo1497

Mauricio RuavsOvince Saint PreuxUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux · Saturday, November 8, 2014Uberlandia, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Ovince Saint Preux won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:34

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsOvince Saint Preux: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Ovince Saint Preux wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ovince Saint Preux has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ovince Saint Preux (53.5%).
Ovince Saint Preux has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Ovince Saint Preux

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1447

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Mauricio Rua · May 22

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricOvince Saint Preux

3.57

Strikes / min

3.03

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

54%

Strike defense

47%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

1.09

49%

Takedown defense

67%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaOvince Saint Preux

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +146.0|Blue -146.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetOvince Saint Preux

By target zone

0% acc

Head

57% acc · 89%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 22%

Clinch

Ground

58% acc · 78%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

Round 1Ovince Saint Preux edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 3

Sig Strikes

9 / 15

66%

Sig Str %

60%

2 / 3

Total Strikes

9 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ovince Saint Preux	9 / 15	9 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Mauricio Rua	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0	0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28