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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Jon Jones won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1447
Mauricio Rua
Elo1511
Jon Jones

Mauricio RuavsJon JonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · Saturday, March 19, 2011Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:37

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsJon Jones: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at +195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Jon Jones has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jon Jones has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jon Jones has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua
Red Corner
VS
Jon Jones
Blue Corner
+195
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-215
(68%)
1447
Elo
1511
44
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'4"
193.04 cm
Reach
213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18
W
vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20
L
KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20
L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22
L
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23
latest
Jon JonesW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19
W
vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19
W
vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20
W
SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricJon Jones
3.57
Strikes / min
4.38
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.24
54%
Strike defense
64%
2.01
TDs / 15 min
1.89
49%
Takedown defense
95%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.78Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+2.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1547Strikes42.0 vs 28.9Takedowns1.2 vs 2.1Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.57Form1.0 vs 1.0
Mauricio RuaJon Jones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Jon Jones(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -64.0|Blue +64.0
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +273.0|Blue -273.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetJon Jones

By target zone

6
19% acc · 67%
Head
50
60% acc · 67%
2
29% acc · 22%
Body
15
83% acc · 20%
1
100% acc · 11%
Leg
10
83% acc · 13%

By position

8
22% acc · 89%
Distance
26
52% acc · 35%
1
25% acc · 11%
Clinch
10
83% acc · 13%
0
Ground
39
76% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mauricio Rua rounds
0
even
3
Jon Jones rounds
Round 1Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:02
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:20Control
Round 2Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:47Control
Round 3Jon Jones edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns0
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:45Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
9 / 40
Sig Strikes
75 / 113
20.3%
Sig Str %
66.3%
11 / 42
Total Strikes
102 / 142
0 / 0
TDs
3 / 3
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
7:52

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jon Jones25 / 4231 / 481 / 10
1Mauricio Rua5 / 175 / 170 / 00
2Jon Jones26 / 3541 / 521 / 10
2Mauricio Rua3 / 165 / 180 / 00
3Jon Jones24 / 3630 / 421 / 10
3Mauricio Rua1 / 71 / 70 / 00

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights19