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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ihor Potieria won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1447

Elo1479

Mauricio RuavsIhor PotieriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Ihor Potieria won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:05

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsIhor Potieria: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ihor Potieria wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Ihor Potieria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ihor Potieria at -195 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ihor Potieria enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mauricio Rua is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Ihor Potieria has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Ihor Potieria is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mauricio Rua has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Ihor Potieria has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ihor Potieria (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Ihor Potieria

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-195

(66%)

1447

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 18

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

latest

Ihor PotieriaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rodolfo Bellato · Dec 23

vs Robert Bryczek · Feb 24

SUBvs Michel Pereira · May 24

vs Cesar Almeida · Oct 24

KOvs Marco Tulio · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricIhor Potieria

3.57

Strikes / min

4.44

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

4.96

54%

Strike defense

50%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

0.73

49%

Takedown defense

66%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaIhor Potieria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Ihor Potieria(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.0|Blue +32.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetIhor Potieria

By target zone

24% acc · 24%

Head

46% acc · 76%

75% acc · 18%

Body

75% acc · 14%

100% acc · 59%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

42% acc · 62%

Clinch

83% acc · 24%

Ground

75% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Ihor Potieria rounds

Round 1Ihor Potieria edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 31

Sig Strikes

21 / 41

54%

Sig Str %

51%

21 / 35

Total Strikes

27 / 47

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ihor Potieria	21 / 41	27 / 47	0 / 2	0
1	Mauricio Rua	17 / 31	21 / 35	0 / 0	0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Ihor Potieria

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8