← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mauricio Rua won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1447

Elo1411

Mauricio RuavsGian VillanteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Saturday, March 11, 2017Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Mauricio Rua won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:59

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsGian Villante: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gian Villante wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Mauricio Rua wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gian Villante at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Mauricio Rua has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Gian Villante has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Gian Villante

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1447

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Gian VillanteL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20

vs Jake Collier · Dec 20

KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricGian Villante

3.57

Strikes / min

4.38

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

5.47

54%

Strike defense

55%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

0.45

49%

Takedown defense

83%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap-1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaGian Villante

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Gian Villante(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.7|Blue -36.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +209.0|Blue -209.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetGian Villante

By target zone

49% acc · 72%

Head

34% acc · 87%

80% acc · 17%

Body

75% acc · 5%

77% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Gian Villante rounds

Round 1Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns2

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:04

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 173

Sig Strikes

55 / 151

55%

Sig Str %

32%

94 / 174

Total Strikes

55 / 151

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

66%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gian Villante	25 / 69	25 / 69	0 / 0
1	Mauricio Rua	39 / 77	39 / 77	2 / 3
2	Gian Villante	27 / 68	27 / 68	0 / 1
2	Mauricio Rua	38 / 68	38 / 69	0 / 0
3	Gian Villante	3 / 14	3 / 14	0 / 0
3	Mauricio Rua	17 / 28	17 / 28	0 / 0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18