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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Dan Henderson won · U-DEC R5
Elo1447
Mauricio Rua
Elo1491
Dan Henderson

Mauricio RuavsDan HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · Saturday, November 19, 2011San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Dan Henderson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dan Henderson wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Dan Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Henderson at +143 American odds

+$143 profit

$243 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Dan Henderson is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Mauricio Rua has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua
Red Corner
VS
Dan Henderson
Blue Corner
-153
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+143
(41%)
1447
Elo
1491
44
Age
55
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18
W
vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20
L
KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20
L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22
L
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23
latest
Dan Henderson
oldest →
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15
W
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15
L
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15
W
KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16
L
vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricDan Henderson
3.57
Strikes / min
2.44
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
54%
Strike defense
51%
2.01
TDs / 15 min
1.52
49%
Takedown defense
57%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.78Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1500Strikes33.6 vs 35.1Takedowns0.9 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.29 vs 0.57Form0.3 vs 0.0
Mauricio RuaDan Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -43.1|Blue +43.1
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -47.3|Blue +47.3
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetDan Henderson

By target zone

80
47% acc · 83%
Head
55
46% acc · 71%
8
80% acc · 8%
Body
16
100% acc · 21%
8
67% acc · 8%
Leg
6
100% acc · 8%

By position

43
42% acc · 45%
Distance
33
42% acc · 43%
19
56% acc · 20%
Clinch
27
68% acc · 35%
34
60% acc · 35%
Ground
17
77% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Mauricio Rua rounds
0
even
3
Dan Henderson rounds
Round 1Dan Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control1:10
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 2Dan Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:47
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:13Control
Round 3Dan Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control2:07
Knockdowns0
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:05Control
1Knockdowns
Round 4Mauricio Rua edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns3
Control0:30
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:00Control
Round 5Mauricio Rua edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control4:33
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
96 / 194
Sig Strikes
77 / 141
48.2%
Sig Str %
42.4%
191 / 293
Total Strikes
113 / 179
5 / 10
TDs
1 / 4
58.3%
TD %
16.7%
1
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
2
9:07
Ctrl Time
4:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dan Henderson23 / 4328 / 480 / 11
1Mauricio Rua10 / 2524 / 400 / 30
2Dan Henderson25 / 4235 / 530 / 00
2Mauricio Rua20 / 4528 / 530 / 00
3Dan Henderson21 / 3533 / 480 / 10
3Mauricio Rua17 / 3827 / 491 / 31
4Mauricio Rua23 / 4433 / 543 / 30
4Dan Henderson8 / 209 / 211 / 20
5Dan Henderson0 / 18 / 90 / 00
5Mauricio Rua26 / 4279 / 971 / 10

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights11