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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Dan Henderson won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1447

Elo1491

Mauricio RuavsDan HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · Sunday, March 23, 2014Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Official fight result

Dan Henderson won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:31

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Dan Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dan Henderson is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Mauricio Rua has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Dan Henderson

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1447

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Dan Henderson

oldest →

KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15

KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16

vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricDan Henderson

3.57

Strikes / min

2.44

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

54%

Strike defense

51%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

1.52

49%

Takedown defense

57%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaDan Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.1|Blue +43.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -27.0|Blue +27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetDan Henderson

By target zone

42% acc · 65%

Head

31% acc · 70%

57% acc · 8%

Body

75% acc · 13%

87% acc · 27%

Leg

80% acc · 17%

By position

44% acc · 65%

Distance

30% acc · 61%

80% acc · 8%

Clinch

50% acc · 22%

65% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Dan Henderson rounds

Round 1Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control0:40

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:45

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Dan Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 96

Sig Strikes

23 / 60

47.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

79 / 128

Total Strikes

32 / 70

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:25

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Henderson	10 / 35	10 / 35	0 / 0
1	Mauricio Rua	30 / 58	35 / 63	1 / 1
2	Dan Henderson	5 / 12	11 / 19	0 / 1
2	Mauricio Rua	12 / 24	38 / 51	0 / 1
3	Dan Henderson	8 / 13	11 / 16	0 / 1
3	Mauricio Rua	6 / 14	6 / 14	0 / 0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11