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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mauricio Rua won · S-DEC R3

Elo1447

Elo1492

Mauricio RuavsCorey AndersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · Saturday, May 14, 2016Curitiba, Parana, Brazil

Official fight result

Mauricio Rua won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsCorey Anderson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Corey Anderson wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Mauricio Rua wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Corey Anderson at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mauricio Rua is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Corey Anderson has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Corey Anderson has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Corey Anderson

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1447

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Corey Anderson

oldest →

vs Patrick Cummins · Apr 18

vs Glover Teixeira · Jul 18

vs Ilir Latifi · Dec 18

KOvs Johnny Walker · Nov 19

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricCorey Anderson

3.57

Strikes / min

4.43

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.22

54%

Strike defense

59%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

4.89

49%

Takedown defense

83%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+2.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaCorey Anderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Corey Anderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.7|Blue +44.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetCorey Anderson

By target zone

35% acc · 54%

Head

32% acc · 67%

71% acc · 10%

Body

77% acc · 18%

89% acc · 35%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

45% acc · 77%

Distance

35% acc · 73%

75% acc · 13%

Clinch

60% acc · 22%

50% acc · 10%

Ground

75% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Corey Anderson rounds

Round 1Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:43Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:33Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 101

Sig Strikes

55 / 138

42.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

66 / 119

Total Strikes

106 / 196

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 8

—

TD %

53%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

5:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Corey Anderson	30 / 75	41 / 86	0 / 0
1	Mauricio Rua	30 / 55	32 / 57	0 / 0
2	Corey Anderson	19 / 46	27 / 57	2 / 5
2	Mauricio Rua	14 / 34	20 / 40	0 / 0
3	Corey Anderson	6 / 17	38 / 53	2 / 3
3	Mauricio Rua	4 / 12	14 / 22	0 / 0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Corey Anderson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights15