← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Chael Sonnen won · SUB R1

Elo1447

Elo1490

Mauricio RuavsChael SonnenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Chael Sonnen won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:47

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsChael Sonnen: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chael Sonnen wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Chael Sonnen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chael Sonnen at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chael Sonnen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mauricio Rua is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Chael Sonnen has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Chael Sonnen has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chael Sonnen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Chael Sonnen

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1447

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Chael SonnenL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Stann · Oct 11

vs Michael Bisping · Jan 12

KOvs Anderson Silva · Jul 12

KOvs Jon Jones · Apr 13

KOvs Rashad Evans · Nov 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricChael Sonnen

3.57

Strikes / min

3.08

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

1.10

54%

Strike defense

62%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

3.81

49%

Takedown defense

66%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaChael Sonnen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Chael Sonnen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.8|Blue +42.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetChael Sonnen

By target zone

0% acc

Head

43% acc · 60%

Body

100% acc · 40%

Leg

By position

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

57% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Chael Sonnen rounds

Round 1Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:50

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

5 / 9

Sig Str %

55%

9 / 10

Total Strikes

58 / 70

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:50

Ctrl Time

3:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chael Sonnen	5 / 9	58 / 70	2 / 3	2
1	Mauricio Rua	0 / 1	9 / 10	0 / 1	0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Chael Sonnen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7