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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Mauricio Rua won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1447

Elo1352

Mauricio RuavsBrandon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · Saturday, August 4, 2012Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Mauricio Rua won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 4:09

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsBrandon Vera: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Mauricio Rua wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mauricio Rua is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Brandon Vera has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Brandon Vera

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+355

(22%)

1447

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Brandon Vera

oldest →

KOvs Jon Jones · Mar 10

vs Eliot Marshall · Oct 11

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricBrandon Vera

3.57

Strikes / min

3.03

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

54%

Strike defense

52%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

0.70

49%

Takedown defense

59%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaBrandon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Brandon Vera(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.1|Blue -95.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetBrandon Vera

By target zone

63% acc · 75%

Head

44% acc · 42%

82% acc · 13%

Body

96% acc · 40%

73% acc · 12%

Leg

80% acc · 18%

By position

56% acc · 56%

Distance

59% acc · 76%

89% acc · 24%

Clinch

93% acc · 21%

82% acc · 21%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Brandon Vera rounds

Round 1Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control4:34

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:51

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:46Control

Round 3Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control3:26

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 4Mauricio Rua edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:35

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 103

Sig Strikes

67 / 106

66.5%

Sig Str %

66%

142 / 184

Total Strikes

89 / 132

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

58.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

11:26

Ctrl Time

1:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Vera	7 / 9	8 / 10	0 / 0	1
1	Mauricio Rua	8 / 12	31 / 38	2 / 2	0
2	Mauricio Rua	31 / 49	53 / 72	1 / 1	0
2	Brandon Vera	20 / 37	27 / 46	1 / 1	0
3	Brandon Vera	20 / 32	29 / 42	0 / 0	0
3	Mauricio Rua	13 / 21	30 / 39	1 / 3	0
4	Brandon Vera	20 / 28	25 / 34	0 / 1	0
4	Mauricio Rua	16 / 21	28 / 35	0 / 1	0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Brandon Vera

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4