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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Anthony Smith won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1447

Elo1485

Mauricio RuavsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Sunday, July 22, 2018Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:29

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mauricio Rua is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mauricio Rua has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Anthony Smith

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1447

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricAnthony Smith

3.57

Strikes / min

3.19

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

5.04

54%

Strike defense

44%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

0.44

49%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 2.63 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.6|Blue +37.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +455.0|Blue -455.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

0% acc

Head

72% acc · 91%

100% acc · 25%

Body

75% acc · 75%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

74% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Anthony Smith rounds

Round 1Anthony Smith edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 12

Sig Strikes

23 / 31

33%

Sig Str %

74%

4 / 12

Total Strikes

23 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Smith	23 / 31	23 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Mauricio Rua	4 / 12	4 / 12	0 / 0	0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25