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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Gustafsson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1447

Elo1430

Mauricio RuavsAlexander GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Gustafsson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMauricio Rua: WrestlervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Rua wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Rua at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alexander Gustafsson has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Rua

Red Corner

Alexander Gustafsson

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1447

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'5"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18

vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20

KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23

latest

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuaMetricAlexander Gustafsson

3.57

Strikes / min

4.03

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

54%

Strike defense

51%

2.01

TDs / 15 min

1.53

49%

Takedown defense

83%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuaAlexander Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.0|Blue -17.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuaTargetAlexander Gustafsson

By target zone

33% acc · 56%

Head

43% acc · 79%

54% acc · 17%

Body

69% acc · 13%

85% acc · 27%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

36% acc · 66%

Distance

38% acc · 65%

74% acc · 34%

Clinch

71% acc · 14%

Ground

79% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Rua rounds

even

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:13

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:16

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 3Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 95

Sig Strikes

72 / 156

43.7%

Sig Str %

46%

51 / 105

Total Strikes

128 / 215

1 / 3

TDs

6 / 12

50%

TD %

49.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

3:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Gustafsson	21 / 50	31 / 60	1 / 3	0
1	Mauricio Rua	16 / 27	22 / 33	1 / 1	1
2	Alexander Gustafsson	20 / 54	44 / 79	2 / 3	0
2	Mauricio Rua	15 / 38	18 / 41	0 / 2	0
3	Alexander Gustafsson	31 / 52	53 / 76	3 / 6	0
3	Mauricio Rua	10 / 30	11 / 31	0 / 0	0

Mauricio Rua

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17