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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1400

Elo1538

Maurice GreenevsSergei PavlovichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Saturday, October 26, 2019Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Sergei Pavlovich won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:11

Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergei Pavlovich at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Maurice Greene has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Sergei Pavlovich has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sergei Pavlovich has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
Sergei Pavlovich has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Maurice Greene

Red Corner

Sergei Pavlovich

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1400

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'7"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maurice GreeneL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Junior Albini · Jun 19

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jan 20

SUBvs Gian Villante · Jun 20

KOvs Greg Hardy · Oct 20

vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · May 21

latest

Sergei PavlovichW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maurice GreeneMetricSergei Pavlovich

3.28

Strikes / min

4.43

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

45%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.48

27%

Takedown defense

75%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maurice GreeneSergei Pavlovich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maurice Greene(8 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.1|Blue +138.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maurice GreeneTargetSergei Pavlovich

By target zone

9% acc · 13%

Head

56% acc · 100%

50% acc · 13%

Body

0% acc

67% acc · 75%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 35%

Clinch

63% acc · 25%

Ground

67% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maurice Greene rounds

even

Sergei Pavlovich rounds

Round 1Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 22

Sig Strikes

20 / 37

36%

Sig Str %

54%

8 / 22

Total Strikes

21 / 38

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sergei Pavlovich	20 / 37	21 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Maurice Greene	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 0	0

Maurice Greene

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights12