Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · U-DEC

Elo1400

Elo1506

Maurice GreenevsMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · Saturday, May 8, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Maurice Greene has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Maurice Greene threatens submissions; Marcos Rogerio de Lima has lost 71% of fights by sub.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Maurice Greene has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Maurice Greene

Red Corner

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Blue Corner

+157

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-177

(64%)

1400

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'7"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maurice Greene

oldest →

KOvs Junior Albini · Jun 19

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Oct 19

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jan 20

SUBvs Gian Villante · Jun 20

KOvs Greg Hardy · Oct 20

latest

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maurice GreeneMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima

3.28

Strikes / min

3.70

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

45%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.40

27%

Takedown defense

59%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maurice GreeneMarcos Rogerio de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maurice Greene(8 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -105.8|Blue +105.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maurice GreeneTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima

By target zone

50% acc · 60%

Head

48% acc · 79%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

63% acc · 100%

Distance

30% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

67% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maurice Greene rounds

even

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:29Control

Round 2Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:50Control

Round 3Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 8

Sig Strikes

14 / 26

43.3%

Sig Str %

53.5%

60 / 72

Total Strikes

166 / 228

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

14:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	6 / 13	58 / 88	1 / 1
1	Maurice Greene	4 / 5	23 / 25	0 / 0
2	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	8 / 13	45 / 66	1 / 1
2	Maurice Greene	0 / 1	16 / 19	0 / 0
3	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	0 / 0	63 / 74	1 / 2
3	Maurice Greene	1 / 2	21 / 28	0 / 0

Maurice Greene

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17