Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Maurice Greene won · S-DEC R3

Elo1400

Elo1389

Maurice GreenevsJeff HughesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Maurice Greene won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Maurice Greene wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Maurice Greene wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maurice Greene at +215 American odds

+$215 profit

$315 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maurice Greene threatens submissions; Jeff Hughes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Jeff Hughes has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jeff Hughes has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Maurice Greene

Red Corner

Jeff Hughes

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1400

Elo

1389

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'7"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maurice GreeneL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Oct 19

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jan 20

SUBvs Gian Villante · Jun 20

KOvs Greg Hardy · Oct 20

vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · May 21

latest

Jeff HughesL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Raphael Pessoa Nunes · Oct 19

SUBvs Juan Espino · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maurice GreeneMetricJeff Hughes

3.28

Strikes / min

3.95

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

45%

Strike defense

60%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.71

27%

Takedown defense

45%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maurice GreeneJeff Hughes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maurice Greene(8 fights)Jeff Hughes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.1|Blue -11.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maurice GreeneTargetJeff Hughes

By target zone

37% acc · 60%

Head

39% acc · 64%

50% acc · 14%

Body

73% acc · 17%

67% acc · 26%

Leg

62% acc · 20%

By position

40% acc · 83%

Distance

45% acc · 94%

75% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maurice Greene rounds

even

Jeff Hughes rounds

Round 1Maurice Greene edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:19

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Maurice Greene edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Jeff Hughes edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 161

Sig Strikes

66 / 143

43.3%

Sig Str %

45.7%

72 / 163

Total Strikes

67 / 144

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeff Hughes	22 / 47	22 / 47	0 / 1
1	Maurice Greene	26 / 68	27 / 69	0 / 0
2	Jeff Hughes	23 / 50	24 / 51	0 / 0
2	Maurice Greene	26 / 51	27 / 52	0 / 0
3	Jeff Hughes	21 / 46	21 / 46	0 / 0
3	Maurice Greene	18 / 42	18 / 42	0 / 0

Maurice Greene

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8

Jeff Hughes

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3