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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Uros Medic won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1487

Elo1539

Matthew SemelsbergervsUros MedicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Uros Medic won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:36

Model Prediction: Uros Medic wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Uros Medic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Uros Medic enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (54.1%).
Matthew Semelsberger has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Semelsberger

Red Corner

Uros Medic

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1487

Elo

1539

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew SemelsbergerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jul 22

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

Uros MedicW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tim Means · Apr 24

KOvs Punahele Soriano · Jan 25

KOvs Gilbert Urbina · Aug 25

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 25

KOvs Geoff Neal · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew SemelsbergerMetricUros Medic

3.77

Strikes / min

5.59

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.42

54%

Strike defense

56%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

0.34

45%

Takedown defense

55%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47Δ 2.64 — meaningful gap+2.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew SemelsbergerUros Medic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)Uros Medic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.9|Blue +51.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -336.0|Blue +336.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew SemelsbergerTargetUros Medic

By target zone

34% acc · 60%

Head

50% acc · 71%

57% acc · 15%

Body

63% acc · 25%

87% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

40% acc · 81%

Distance

48% acc · 72%

60% acc · 6%

Clinch

72% acc · 19%

78% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

even

Uros Medic rounds

Round 1Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:54

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Uros Medic edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 120

Sig Strikes

69 / 128

43.3%

Sig Str %

54.7%

53 / 121

Total Strikes

76 / 135

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:13

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Uros Medic	18 / 31	19 / 32	1 / 1
1	Matthew Semelsberger	17 / 36	18 / 37	0 / 1
2	Uros Medic	25 / 55	26 / 56	0 / 0
2	Matthew Semelsberger	24 / 58	24 / 58	0 / 0
3	Uros Medic	26 / 42	31 / 47	0 / 0
3	Matthew Semelsberger	11 / 26	11 / 26	0 / 1

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Uros Medic

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10