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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Preston Parsons won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1490

Matthew SemelsbergervsPreston ParsonsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Saturday, January 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Preston Parsons won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Preston Parsons wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Preston Parsons wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Preston Parsons at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Preston Parsons enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Preston Parsons has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).
Matthew Semelsberger has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Semelsberger

Red Corner

Preston Parsons

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1487

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew SemelsbergerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jul 22

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

Preston ParsonsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 21

vs Evan Elder · Apr 22

vs Trevin Giles · Mar 23

vs Oban Elliott · Jul 24

KOvs Jacobe Smith · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew SemelsbergerMetricPreston Parsons

3.77

Strikes / min

3.54

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

54%

Strike defense

54%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

3.46

45%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew SemelsbergerPreston Parsons

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)Preston Parsons(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew SemelsbergerTargetPreston Parsons

By target zone

33% acc · 64%

Head

40% acc · 53%

50% acc · 14%

Body

82% acc · 19%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

93% acc · 28%

By position

38% acc · 82%

Distance

42% acc · 53%

43% acc · 11%

Clinch

85% acc · 23%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

73% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

even

Preston Parsons rounds

Round 1Preston Parsons edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:44

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Preston Parsons edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:30

17Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 3Preston Parsons edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:54

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 69

Sig Strikes

47 / 87

40.3%

Sig Str %

52.7%

33 / 77

Total Strikes

116 / 165

1 / 2

TDs

7 / 11

50%

TD %

59.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:08

Ctrl Time

6:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Preston Parsons	20 / 35	45 / 62	1 / 3	0
1	Matthew Semelsberger	11 / 29	15 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Preston Parsons	17 / 31	36 / 53	4 / 5	1
2	Matthew Semelsberger	9 / 21	10 / 23	1 / 2	0
3	Preston Parsons	10 / 21	35 / 50	2 / 3	1
3	Matthew Semelsberger	8 / 19	8 / 19	0 / 0	2

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Preston Parsons

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6