← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Semelsberger won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1487

Elo1494

Matthew SemelsbergervsMartin SanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matthew Semelsberger won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:15

Model Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Matthew Semelsberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Semelsberger at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Matthew Semelsberger has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matthew Semelsberger has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Semelsberger

Red Corner

Martin Sano

Blue Corner

-525

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+385

(21%)

1487

Elo

1494

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

Martin SanoNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew SemelsbergerMetricMartin Sano

3.77

Strikes / min

4.00

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

12.00

54%

Strike defense

40%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

0.00

45%

Takedown defense

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47Δ 7.53 — meaningful gap-8.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew SemelsbergerMartin Sano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)Martin Sano(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.2|Blue +6.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew SemelsbergerTargetMartin Sano

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

33% acc · 100%

100% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

By position

50% acc · 67%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

even

Martin Sano rounds

Round 1Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 5

Sig Strikes

1 / 3

60%

Sig Str %

33%

3 / 5

Total Strikes

1 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Martin Sano	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Matthew Semelsberger	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0	0

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Martin Sano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights1