← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Semelsberger won · KO/TKO

Elo1487

Elo1432

Matthew SemelsbergervsJason WittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Saturday, March 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matthew Semelsberger won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Matthew Semelsberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Semelsberger at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jason Witt has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).
Matthew Semelsberger has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Semelsberger

Red Corner

Jason Witt

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1487

Elo

1432

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

Jason WittL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Takashi Sato · Jun 20

SUBvs Cole Williams · Oct 20

vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 21

KOvs Phil Rowe · Feb 22

KOvs Josh Quinlan · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew SemelsbergerMetricJason Witt

3.77

Strikes / min

2.15

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

54%

Strike defense

52%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

6.90

45%

Takedown defense

100%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew SemelsbergerJason Witt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)Jason Witt(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.1|Blue -55.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew SemelsbergerTargetJason Witt

By target zone

50% acc · 67%

Head

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

100% acc · 67%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

33% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

even

Jason Witt rounds

Round 1Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 5

Sig Strikes

4 / 4

60%

Sig Str %

100%

3 / 5

Total Strikes

4 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jason Witt	4 / 4	4 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Matthew Semelsberger	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0	0

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Jason Witt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6