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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Charles Radtke won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1487

Elo1526

Matthew SemelsbergervsCharles RadtkeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Saturday, November 9, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Radtke won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:51

Model Prediction: Charles Radtke wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Charles Radtke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Charles Radtke has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Semelsberger

Red Corner

Charles Radtke

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1487

Elo

1526

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew SemelsbergerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jul 22

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

latest

Charles RadtkeW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gilbert Urbina · Feb 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Jun 24

KOvs Mike Malott · May 25

SUBvs Daniel Frunza · Nov 25

DECvs Francisco Prado · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew SemelsbergerMetricCharles Radtke

3.77

Strikes / min

2.50

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.45

54%

Strike defense

54%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

1.99

45%

Takedown defense

100%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking+0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew SemelsbergerCharles Radtke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)Charles Radtke(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.9|Blue +38.9

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew SemelsbergerTargetCharles Radtke

By target zone

14% acc · 50%

Head

55% acc · 86%

100% acc · 50%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

58% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

even

Charles Radtke rounds

Round 1Charles Radtke edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 8

Sig Strikes

7 / 12

25%

Sig Str %

58%

2 / 8

Total Strikes

7 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Radtke	7 / 12	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Matthew Semelsberger	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0	0

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Charles Radtke

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6