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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Semelsberger won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1495

Matthew SemelsbergervsAJ FletcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 12, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matthew Semelsberger won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Matthew Semelsberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Semelsberger at -195 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Matthew Semelsberger has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Semelsberger

Red Corner

AJ Fletcher

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1487

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

AJ Fletcher

oldest →

vs Ange Loosa · Aug 22

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Feb 23

SUBvs Bryan Battle · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew SemelsbergerMetricAJ Fletcher

3.77

Strikes / min

3.36

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

54%

Strike defense

46%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

1.54

45%

Takedown defense

33%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew SemelsbergerAJ Fletcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)AJ Fletcher(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.9|Blue +7.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew SemelsbergerTargetAJ Fletcher

By target zone

48% acc · 80%

Head

43% acc · 62%

50% acc · 15%

Body

50% acc · 6%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 32%

By position

41% acc · 53%

Distance

52% acc · 88%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

61% acc · 43%

Ground

80% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

even

AJ Fletcher rounds

Round 1AJ Fletcher edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:05

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:31Control

Round 2Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control2:07

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Matthew Semelsberger edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:43

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 82

Sig Strikes

34 / 64

43.3%

Sig Str %

55.7%

54 / 97

Total Strikes

87 / 124

1 / 1

TDs

4 / 6

100%

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

4:55

Ctrl Time

5:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	AJ Fletcher	6 / 9	22 / 29	1 / 2	2
1	Matthew Semelsberger	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	AJ Fletcher	16 / 31	35 / 50	2 / 3	0
2	Matthew Semelsberger	24 / 44	29 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	AJ Fletcher	12 / 24	30 / 45	1 / 1	0
3	Matthew Semelsberger	14 / 32	23 / 42	1 / 1	0

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

AJ Fletcher

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4